Finally, on March 18, in Hubei Province, there were 0 newly diagnosed cases, 0 newly suspected cases and 0 currently suspected cases. This means that before long, the domestic epidemic will be completely under control.
Seeing such exciting news, it happened that spring tea was on the market in large quantities. It seems that the tea industry, which has been frozen to death for two months, can smile. However, three zeros in Hubei does not mean victory. A large number of spring teas are listed on the market, let alone a good market for spring teas.
After the epidemic, will tea prices rise in 2020?
-01-
Enshi, Hubei, famous tea prices down 30%
Hubei, the place where the epidemic broke out, has been affecting the hearts of Chinese people in recent months. Hubei tea has always been affecting the hearts of the tea industry. In 2019, Hubei is the province with the fastest growth in tea export, with 17000 tons of tea export, a year-on-year growth of 43.1%.
Yesterday, CCTV financial reporter visited wujiatai tribute tea garden in Hubei Province.
In the tea garden, only tea farmers pick tea separately. In previous years, tourists took their families to the tea garden to experience spring tea picking. This year, there were no tourists at all. The situation of spring tea is really worrying.
According to local industry insiders, at present, the operating rate of processing enterprises is only 80%. Some enterprises are not confident about the tea market this year and dare not start or process.
The sales channels of spring tea are not smooth, the number of old customers is decreasing, and new customers are looking for them. Affected by the late opening of tea market, offline logistics is not smooth, there are orders online, but the goods can not be delivered.
Industry insiders also said: this year, tea revenue will decrease. Compared with last year, the income and price of this year's spring tea has dropped by nearly 30%.
The famous wujiataigong tea is still like this, and other tea in Hubei will not be optimistic.
After the epidemic, will tea prices rise in 2020?
-02-
Longjing, West Lake, labor increases, tea prices may rise
In 2019, Xihu Longjing, which ranks first in the regional brand value list of tea, was picked on March 15.
West Lake Longjing, a bud two leaves, 60000 bud head to do a jin of dry tea, a day can pick 5-6 Jin of fresh leaves, do a Jin to a Jin and a half of dry tea.
This year, the tea workers in Longjing, West Lake, come from Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Quzhou, Zhejiang. They all hire cars to pick tea.
This year, the cost of a tea worker is about 180-200 yuan per day, and the income of a tea worker is about 4000 yuan during the 20 day tea picking season. In the same period last year, the labor cost was about 120 yuan a day.
The price of tea workers is rising. People in the industry believe that the price of West Lake Longjing will rise this year. Industry insiders said: the price of West Lake Longjing will not drop significantly this year, and it may rise by about 5%.
After the epidemic, will tea prices rise in 2020?
-03-
Pu'er tea, price down 30%
On March 15, CCTV reporters visited Simao, Yunnan Province, and interviewed local tea farmers. The sprouts, which cost 60 yuan / kg in previous years, only sold for 40 yuan / kg this year.
Zhou Zhonghui, a tea farmer, has five or six mu of tea land. In previous years, his income per mu was 7000 yuan, but this year it is only about 2000 yuan or 3000 yuan, which is one third lower than that in previous years.
At this time of last year, the tea mountain was full of people, and the trading market was booming. Affected by the epidemic this year, foreign tea merchants and tourists have not been to the tea mountain.
Subsequently, the reporter visited the loose tea market, the market was cold and quiet, there were not many people who bought tea and sold tea, and tea merchants felt that it was difficult to do spring tea business this year. At present, the price of fresh leaves is about 15 yuan per kilogram, and that of Maocha is about 70 yuan per kilogram.
Due to the large inventory last year, tea merchants did not dare to collect a lot of tea. Local tea merchants in Yunnan revealed that because of the epidemic, tea shops did not open for 40 or 50 days, and there was still one third of the tea collected last year this year.
There are few people to collect tea, and there is fierce competition among tea farmers. A local tea merchant in Yunnan said: Pu'er tea is basically sold here, and everyone is comparing tea. If the price of tea is higher than two yuan, no one will want it, and a jin of tea will earn one or two yuan.
The market of ancient tree tea, which we are most concerned about, is not good this year.
In the Pu'er tea industry, large enterprises with capital and strength do not accept ancient tree tea. They play with science and technology. Such enterprises are few in the industry. There are thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises left to make ancient tree tea, and they make a bowl of rice in Pu'er tea industry through quality.
This year's epidemic is a blow to small and medium-sized enterprises. Many small and medium-sized enterprises, with broken capital chain and no cash flow, dare not collect a lot of tea this year.
Coupled with the poor market, tea companies dare not overestimate the tea market. If we only consider the market supply and demand for this year's ancient tree tea, we will take it for granted that it is rare and expensive.
If the price of ancient tree tea does not fall by 10% - 20%, tea merchants dare not accept the offer.
After the epidemic, will tea prices rise in 2020?
-04-
Export prices are likely to fall
In 2019, the export prices of all kinds of tea in China will rise, and Pu'er tea will rise the most.
Among them, green tea was US $4.336/kg, up 7.4% year on year; black tea was US $9.923/kg, up 16.72% year on year; oolong tea was US $13.01/kg, up 36.7% year on year; flower tea was US $10 / kg, up 4.1% year on year; Pu'er tea was US $18.54/kg, up 96.4% year on year.
However, in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the export price of tea is likely to fall.
According to the current global anti epidemic situation, it is almost impossible for the epidemic to end this summer, said Zhang Wenhong, a doctor of hardcore.com and affiliated Huashan Hospital of Fudan University on March 15.
In fact, not only is it impossible to end this summer, but the new coronavirus is really likely to spend a year or more abroad.
In April 2009, there was an outbreak of influenza A. It was not until August 10, 2010 that who announced that the pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) had ended, and the spread was almost over. Before and after time, one year and four months.
At present, the domestic war epidemic is coming to an end, but the foreign epidemic has just broken out. As of 12:00 on the 18th, 115675 cases have been confirmed in 159 countries and regions outside China, far exceeding the number of confirmed cases in China.
These data are very similar to the night before the outbreak of confirmed cases in Wuhan. Chinese tea major customers have all been diagnosed. There are 9 confirmed cases in Morocco in northwest Africa, and 9 cases are not many. According to the strength of this country, it is very difficult. Vietnam, with the third largest export volume, had 66 cases, the United States had 6631 cases, the main customers of the European Union had nearly 10000, and Spain had 11178 confirmed cases.
What is more worrying is that foreign countries do not have China's material production capacity, nor do they have China's ability to mobilize capillaries in the community to deal with the new coronavirus.
Under the epidemic situation, foreign tea merchants are not only worried about whether the tea can not be sold, but also worried about the new coronavirus in the process of tea shop trading.
More importantly, if foreign tea merchants want to make tea, they will consider the financial environment. The U.S. stock market has broken the circuit four times in 10 days, the fifth time in history (there will be the sixth and seventh times later), causing panic in global financial markets.
Such a scene is much stronger than that of 2008. The last financial earthquake of this level was in 1929.
Under this background, foreign tea merchants will become relatively conservative. Epidemic assistance, let the world see China's role, and business will be better in the future.
Tea export will certainly be better in the next few years, and it is very likely that Pu'er tea will go to the world.
But this year, according to the ability of foreign countries to control the epidemic, don't think too much, let alone increase the price. It's very good to be equal to that in 2019. The most likely outcome is that the export price will fall, and the worst outcome is: without exports, where will the price come from?
After the epidemic, will tea prices rise in 2020?
At the end:
Many people think that as soon as the epidemic is over, people will buy it, release the pressure of being stuck at home for two months, and set the price up. In fact, there are retaliatory consumption after the epidemic, such as catering, entertainment and so on. Many people can't wait to make an appointment now.
But, tea industry, what can retaliatory consumption? Because I haven't had tea for two months, or when I finished drinking tea, I bought dozens of Jin of tea to drink enough at one time? Tea is not a necessity of life. Moreover, it can be consumed for a long time. A cake of 357 grams of tea is enough to drink for a month. Even if you don't buy tea for a few months, your family's stock will be able to hold up.
After the epidemic, it is almost impossible for tea to have retaliatory consumption. Even if someone wants to buy some spring tea as a gift, they have to consider their wallet first.
In 2020, no one expected this black swan. With the decline of tea price and the depression of the industry, the whole tea industry has been cooled to the bottom of my heart.
However, the disaster has appeared and will soon be over. What is important is our attitude towards the epidemic. Everything that is harmful will be beneficial. The epidemic situation increases the capital risk, the tea market is not optimistic, and the speculation of ancient tree tea will stop.
The epidemic also makes consumers return to rationality. It used to cost tens of thousands of Jin to buy ancient trees, but now under the epidemic situation, people are short of money and can see the essence of tea, which is always used for drinking.
The epidemic is about to pass, spring is about to bloom!
Bite your teeth and make it through together!
